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Tech and science
Culture
Economy and finance
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps)
98%
Yes
No
1 (25 bps)
<1%
Yes
No
2 (50 bps)
<1%
Yes
No
3 (75 bps)
<1%
Yes
No
$55.9M
Vol.
+9 markets
0 (0 bps)
98%
1 (25 bps)
<1%
2 (50 bps)
<1%
3 (75 bps)
<1%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Economy and finance
Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase
88%
Yes
No
50+ bps increase
9%
Yes
No
No change
4%
Yes
No
25 bps decrease
<1%
Yes
No
$33.7M
Vol.
+1 markets
25 bps increase
88%
50+ bps increase
9%
No change
4%
25 bps decrease
<1%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Tech and science
Largest Company end of December 2026?
Apple
91%
Yes
No
NVIDIA
8%
Yes
No
Alphabet
<1%
Yes
No
Microsoft
<1%
Yes
No
$10.7M
Vol.
+4 markets
Apple
91%
NVIDIA
8%
Alphabet
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Economy and finance
Fed rate cut by...?
July 2027 Meeting
49%
Yes
No
April 2027 Meeting
28%
Yes
No
June 2027 Meeting
28%
Yes
No
March 2027 Meeting
8%
Yes
No
$3.9M
Vol.
+9 markets
July 2027 Meeting
49%
April 2027 Meeting
28%
June 2027 Meeting
28%
March 2027 Meeting
8%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Economy and finance
Fed Decision in January?
25 bps increase
57%
Yes
No
No change
42%
Yes
No
50+ bps increase
1%
Yes
No
25 bps decrease
<1%
Yes
No
$3.4M
Vol.
+1 markets
25 bps increase
57%
No change
42%
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Fed Decision in January?
Fed Decision in December?
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Canada GDP: September 2026 (MoM)
-0.2 to -0.1%
50%
Yes
No
0.0 to 0.1%
23%
Yes
No
<-0.2%
19%
Yes
No
$20.3K
Vol.
6 markets
Core PCE MoM - October 2026
0.3%
79%
Yes
No
0.4%
13%
Yes
No
0.2%
5%
Yes
No
$21.3K
Vol.
7 markets
ECB rate cut in 2026?
2%
Chance
46.51×
Yes
1.02×
No
$41.4K
Vol.
India Annual Inflation 2026
4.50%+
98%
Yes
No
3.00% to 3.74%
2%
Yes
No
3.75% to 4.49%
<1%
Yes
No
$103.8K
Vol.
7 markets
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?
5%
Chance
20×
Yes
1.05×
No
$92.9K
Vol.
Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026
2.0-2.4%
92%
Yes
No
2.5-2.9%
4%
Yes
No
3.0-3.4%
4%
Yes
No
$77.2K
Vol.
6 markets
Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?
$7.000+
48%
Yes
No
$9.000+
14%
Yes
No
$8.000+
13%
Yes
No
$23.9K
Vol.
4 markets
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement?
11%
Chance
9.09×
Yes
1.12×
No
$52.9K
Vol.
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
2%
Chance
55.56×
Yes
1.02×
No
$262.8K
Vol.
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?
1.2m
23%
Yes
No
1.3m
14%
Yes
No
1.4m
5%
Yes
No
$189.7K
Vol.
6 markets
What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on December 31?
<$503K
75%
Yes
No
$503K - $507K
20%
Yes
No
$511K - $515K
2%
Yes
No
$48.4K
Vol.
7 markets
Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?
November 30
7%
Yes
No
$27.9K
Vol.
1 markets
What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on December 31?
<$1.062M
66%
Yes
No
$1.062M - $1.083M
20%
Yes
No
$1.083M - $1.104M
7%
Yes
No
$47.1K
Vol.
7 markets
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
3%
Chance
40×
Yes
1.03×
No
$34.3K
Vol.
Swiss National Bank Decision in March?
No Change
57%
Yes
No
25 bps increase
35%
Yes
No
50+ bps decrease
4%
Yes
No
$24.4K
Vol.
5 markets
US Trade Deficit in 2026?
900B–1T
40%
Yes
No
800–900B
34%
Yes
No
700–800B
14%
Yes
No
$25.8K
Vol.
8 markets
GDP growth in 2026
>2.5%
54%
Yes
No
2.0–2.5%
42%
Yes
No
1.5–2.0%
2%
Yes
No
$90K
Vol.
6 markets
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
5.0%
2%
Yes
No
10.0%
2%
Yes
No
7.0%
2%
Yes
No
$599.6K
Vol.
5 markets
Which banks will fail by end of 2026?
Wells Fargo
3%
Yes
No
RBC
3%
Yes
No
BNP Paribas
3%
Yes
No
$88.4K
Vol.
19 markets
2026 World GDP Growth
3.1%
42%
Yes
No
3.2%
34%
Yes
No
3.0%
16%
Yes
No
$99.5K
Vol.
9 markets
Central Bank of Chile decision in December
No change
60%
Yes
No
25 bps increase
37%
Yes
No
50+ bps increase
2%
Yes
No
$27.4K
Vol.
5 markets
Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?
↓ 7.00%
51%
Yes
No
↑ 7.50%
45%
Yes
No
↑ 7.75%
11%
Yes
No
$127.1K
Vol.
11 markets
Eurozone Annual Inflation 2026
3.1%+
83%
Yes
No
1.0–1.2%
3%
Yes
No
2.5–2.7%
2%
Yes
No
$122.6K
Vol.
9 markets
Bank of England Decision in March?
No Change
63%
Yes
No
25 bps increase
36%
Yes
No
50+ bps decrease
2%
Yes
No
$22.8K
Vol.
5 markets
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?
2%
Chance
62.5×
Yes
1.02×
No
$96.5K
Vol.
UK Annual GDP Growth 2026
1-2%
95%
Yes
No
0-1%
4%
Yes
No
2-3%
<1%
Yes
No
$121K
Vol.
7 markets
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - November 2026
49.0 to 51.9
56%
Yes
No
52.0 to 54.9
25%
Yes
No
46.0 to 48.9
16%
Yes
No
$57.7K
Vol.
7 markets
Which CEOs will be out before 2027?
Brian Armstrong - Coinbase
5%
Yes
No
Andy Jassy - Amazon
4%
Yes
No
Sundar Pichai - Google
4%
Yes
No
$728.5K
Vol.
5 markets
What will the median home value in Miami be on December 31?
$830K - $851K
52%
Yes
No
$809K - $830K
21%
Yes
No
$851K - $870K
13%
Yes
No
$47.8K
Vol.
7 markets
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q4 2026?
4.6-4.9%
60%
Yes
No
4.3-4.6%
38%
Yes
No
4.9-5.2%
2%
Yes
No
$30.4K
Vol.
9 markets
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?
4%
Chance
22.99×
Yes
1.05×
No
$161.6K
Vol.
Reserve Bank of India Decision in February?
25 bps increase
66%
Yes
No
No Change
11%
Yes
No
25 bps decrease
9%
Yes
No
$31.6K
Vol.
5 markets
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
4.0–5.0%
96%
Yes
No
5.0–6.0%
2%
Yes
No
3.0–4.0%
1%
Yes
No
$949.4K
Vol.
10 markets
US recession by end of 2027?
28%
Chance
3.57×
Yes
1.39×
No
$23.8K
Vol.
What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on December 31?
$318K - $323K
35%
Yes
No
$313K - $318K
27%
Yes
No
$303K - $308K
15%
Yes
No
$52K
Vol.
7 markets
Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?
-0.3% to -0.1%
46%
Yes
No
<-0.3%
33%
Yes
No
0.0% to 0.2%
14%
Yes
No
$57.2K
Vol.
7 markets
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